First published Nov. 3, 2008
Tomorrow’s Election Day, so we’ll ask Ronald Reagan’s time-honored question: are Washington residents better off today than we were four years ago? If you’re in King County, the answer is a qualified yes.
The number of people working in King County has increased by 103,370, which is growth of almost 11 percent. As we’ve discussed before, King County has been one of the national leaders in job creation in recent years.
More people means more shoppers. King County retail activity has grown by more than 28 percent since 2004, from $9 billion to $11.3 billion.
If you owned your home in 2004, you’ve done well. The typical 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is now worth about 40 percent more. (Median prices have climbed from $322,000 to $450,000.) Perhaps even more reassuringly, that home’s value has slipped only 4.3 percent from the peak of the market in spring 2007, at a time when many parts of the country are seeing much greater declines. California home values, for example have fallen about 16 percent during the past year.
The one place King County doesn’t stack up is pay. State wage data shows the average King County paycheck is up 14.8 percent since 2004, to $1,080 a week. That’s nice, but it wasn’t enough to keep up with inflation – the Consumer Price Index rose 16.7 percent during the same period.
The state overall has done pretty OK too, since 2004.
- Home values are up 30 percent to a median of $291,900 in the second quarter.
- Statewide retail sales are up about 27 percent, to $29.1 billion in the second quarter.
- Total employment (farm and non-farm) is up 9.4 percent, to 3.3 million people in September.
- Average pay for workers statewide is up 18.6 percent, to $899 a week in the first quarter.
All in all, not so bad, eh? But now let’s ask the question Barack Obama’s been hammering away at – how are we going to be four years from now?
My crystal ball doesn’t see that far out (probably because it’s socked in here today and raining). But clearly, the next four quarters are going to be tough. Two of our major economic indicators – home prices and retail sales – declined statewide in the most-recent quarter. We’re continuing to create jobs, but at a slow pace, and some areas are in decline. Average wages are increasing, but not keeping up with inflation. And the credit crisis is hitting some industry sectors – forest products, construction, banking, auto sales and boat building – hard.
There are places bucking the trend. King County posted 3 percent job growth in September. Yakima’s housing market is booming, and the Tri-Cities are going strong. But many other communities are struggling, with flat labor markets and declining retail sales.
The past four years have been good for Washington, but clearly, we’re not immune from the broader economic crisis, and whoever comes out ahead in tomorrow’s elections will have a big challenge ahead.
